In the 12 months to July 2025, Brazil's Amazon lost 5,796 square kilometres of forest — the smallest area cleared in 11 years. Then the data kept improving. Near-real-time satellite readings from August 2025 through January 2026 recorded the lowest clearing for that period since 2014. Brazil's Environment Minister Marina Silva said what scientists are beginning to believe: 2026 could be the lowest deforestation year since records began in 1988.
The numbers represent a transformation. When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to the presidency in January 2023, the Amazon was in crisis — four years of policy rollback had sent deforestation soaring. In three years, the administration has cut deforestation by more than 50%. The forest is, improbably, winning.
**The Numbers in Context**
Brazil has tracked Amazon deforestation via satellite since 1988 — nearly 40 years of data. At their peak in 2004, the numbers reached catastrophic levels: 27,000 square kilometres cleared in a single year. An area larger than the state of New Hampshire, destroyed in twelve months.
The 2025 figure of 5,796 square kilometres is the third-lowest rate ever recorded. And early 2026 data suggests the all-time record is now within reach.
'If we maintain this pace,' said Marina Silva, Brazil's Environment Minister, 'we could achieve the lowest deforestation rate since the monitoring programme began.'
The Cerrado — Brazil's vast savannah biome — also recorded an 11% decline over the same period.
**What Changed**
The turnaround has come from several directions at once. Enforcement operations against illegal logging and land clearing have intensified significantly, with Brazil's environmental agency IBAMA revitalised after years of budget cuts. The federal government reinstated environmental monitoring infrastructure that had been deliberately dismantled.
Indigenous land demarcations — long delayed — have been accelerated. Demarcated Indigenous territories consistently show lower deforestation rates than surrounding areas, and empowering those communities has proven to be one of the most effective conservation tools available.
The Amazon Fund, Norway's flagship conservation partnership with Brazil that had been frozen under the previous administration, was reactivated in 2023 and has since disbursed hundreds of millions of dollars for sustainable development in Amazon communities — giving local people economic alternatives to clearing forest.
**Why This Matters Globally**
The Amazon is not just Brazil's forest. It stores an estimated 150–200 billion tonnes of carbon — more than 15 years of current global emissions. When it burns or is cleared, that carbon enters the atmosphere. When it stands, it cycles water through rainfall systems that reach as far as Argentina and Bolivia.
Brazil's progress comes at a decisive moment. COP30, the United Nations climate conference, is scheduled for Belém — a city at the mouth of the Amazon — in November 2026. Hosting the world's most important climate summit in the Amazon gives the government every reason to keep these numbers moving in the right direction.
Brazil's official goal is net zero deforestation by 2030. With four years to go and the data heading the right direction, that target is beginning to look achievable. The Amazon — which just ten years ago many scientists were warning could reach an irreversible tipping point — is, for now, beginning to breathe again. 🌳🇧🇷
*Sources: Mongabay (February 2026) · AP News · WWF Brazil · Brazilian government (SECOM/IBAMA) · Yale Environment 360 · Hannah Ritchie / Our World in Data*
