Somewhere on a predator-free island in the far south of New Zealand, a kākāpō is sitting on a nest for the first time in four years. This is not a small thing. There are only 236 of these birds left on Earth — and this breeding season could be the biggest in nearly 50 years.
Kākāpō are unlike any other bird. They are the world's only flightless parrot, the heaviest parrot on the planet, and almost certainly the most eccentric. They are nocturnal, solitary, exceptionally long-lived, and have a smell — conservation staff describe it as 'musty sweet' — that volunteers learn to recognise in the dark. They also don't breed on a schedule. They breed when the rimu trees fruit.
**The Rimu Connection**
Kākāpō breeding is entirely dependent on a phenomenon known as a mast, when New Zealand's rimu trees synchronise and produce enormous quantities of fruit. Masting events trigger the hormonal changes that bring females into breeding condition. Without a rimu mast, the birds simply don't breed — which is why the population has cycles of boom and silence.
The last breeding event was in 2022. Before that, 2019. Before that, 2016. Each cycle is precious, because the species has so little margin. The entire population lives on three remote, predator-free islands: Whenua Hou (Codfish Island), Pukenui (Anchor Island), and Te Kāhaku (Chalky Island).
In late 2025, ecologists monitoring rimu fruiting across all three islands began seeing something extraordinary. Fruit production was tracking at 50 to 60 percent on all three islands simultaneously — one of the highest readings ever recorded. Predictions for 2026 suggested nearly all 87 breeding-age females could nest. 'It looks like a mega-mast,' Department of Conservation (DOC) rangers told the Guardian in January. 'We haven't seen anything like this in years.'
**A Season That Could Change the Numbers**
The kākāpō population stood at 236 individuals at the start of the breeding season — down slightly from a high of 252 in 2022 due to natural deaths among older birds. But with 87 females potentially breeding, and each female typically raising one to two chicks, a successful 2026 season could push the population toward 300 — a milestone not reached in modern times.
Mating began in earnest in late December, with males booming from their hilltop 'lek' bowls — the deep, resonant calls they make to attract females across vast distances. Females began visiting bowl sites in January. Eggs were expected in February and March, with chicks hatching approximately 30 days later.
DOC rangers and trained volunteers live on the islands during breeding season, monitoring each bird around the clock through radio transmitters. Every egg is individually tracked. Genetic diversity is actively managed — specific males are selected as mates to prevent inbreeding in a population that has already passed through extreme genetic bottlenecks.
**From Nine Birds to 236: The Recovery in Context**
The kākāpō's story is one of the most extreme conservation sagas of the 20th century. By 1977, the species was believed functionally extinct on the New Zealand mainland, eliminated by cats, stoats, and rats introduced by European settlers. A rediscovery of a tiny population on Fiordland's Stewart Island changed everything — but even then, only 61 individuals were found, and stoats were killing them faster than they could breed.
The Kākāpō Recovery Programme, established in 1995 by DOC, relocated every known bird to predator-free offshore islands and began the painstaking work of managing what was, at its lowest, a population of just 51 individuals. The programme has grown the population to 236 through relentless management, genetic intervention, hand-rearing of orphaned chicks, and supplementary feeding during lean years.
That a 2026 mega-mast season might push the population close to 300 feels, to people who have dedicated careers to this bird, like watching something come back from the edge of existence in real time.
**What Happens Next**
Results won't be confirmed until mid-year, when the breeding season concludes and chick survival can be assessed. But the conditions — high rimu fruit on all three islands, a healthy adult population, experienced staff, and the accumulated knowledge of three decades of intensive management — are as good as they have ever been.
The kākāpō remains critically endangered. It will remain critically endangered for years. But for right now, in the forests of three islands at the bottom of the world, it is breeding. And that is enough. 🦜
*Sources: New Zealand Department of Conservation · The Guardian · LiveScience · University of Auckland · Predator Free Rakiura*
